About the GSG

The Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute convened the Global Scenario Group in 1995, as an independent, international and interdisciplinary body to engage in a process of scenario development. The GSG examines the prospects for world development in the twenty-first century. A central theme is the identification of  policies, actions and human choices required for a transition to a more sustainable and equitable future. The diversity and continuity of the GSG offers a unique resource to researchers, decision-makers and the general public.

Why scenarios? Sustainability seeks to reconcile development and environmental goals over the long-term. It is concerned with the future. Scenario analysis is a means to illuminate the vast range of possibilities in a structured way. A scenario is a story, told in words and numbers, concerning the manner in which events might unfold. It must be constructed with detail, rigor, and imagination. Scenarios help us to understand where we might be headed, but more, they offer guidance on how to act now to direct the flow of events towards desirable futures and away from undesirable ones.

Why a global perspective? Sustainable development must be pursued at many levels – regional, national, and global. At each level, different sets of issues and opportunities come into focus. In our globalizing world, regional and national strategies will be myopic unless they placed in a global perspective. Globalization takes multiple forms – stresses on the biosphere, far-reaching cultural impacts of communication technology, expansion of worldwide commerce, and the rise of new geopolitical tensions.

Driven by this powerful constellation of forces, the world system is at an uncertain branch point. To understand adequately the human condition and possible future paths, regional and disciplinary perspectives must be complemented by an integrated global panorama.

Activities

The GSG conducts research, provides global assessments and collaborates on regional and national scenario studies.

GSG research includes analysis of the driving forces, critical uncertainties and stresses on social and environmental systems for each scenario. It includes quantification of economic, social, resource and environmental patterns for eleven world regions both currently and for each scenario. The research identifies the policies, values, institutions and life-styles required for a sustainable future. SEI's PoleStar System provides a comprehensive data base and accounting framework for developing alternative scenarios.

GSG scenarios provide a resource for the growing number of projects requiring comprehensive scenarios. These have included the UN Commission on Sustainable Development's Global Modeling Forum, UNEP's Global Environmental Outlook Project, the US National Academy of Science Board on Sustainable Development, the OECD Environmental Outlook, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

The GSG has conducted scenario projects throughout the world. Using GSG data and scenario analyses, along with detailed information provided by local partner organizations, regional and national scenarios are efficiently developed – a "rapid future assessment". These studies provide the basis for meetings to discuss and debate the meaning of sustainability, to consider alternative visions of the future and to craft policy and action programs.

Organization

The GSG Secretariat at SEI-Boston that provides scientific and administrative support for the GSG work program. Dr. Paul Raskin and Dr. Gilberto Gallopin serve as co-coordinators. Major funding has been provided by the Nippon Foundation, the Stockholm Environment Institute, the United Nations Environment Programme, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute.