Publications

The GSG’s major reports are: Great Transition, Bending the Curve, and Branch Points.   


Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (2002) is a path-breaking book that presents a fresh vision for a sustainable world. It describes the historic roots, current dynamics, future perils, and alternative pathways for world development. It advances one of these paths, Great Transition, as the preferred route, identifying strategies, agents of change, and values for a new global agenda.

The planetary phase of history has begun, its ultimate shape profoundly uncertain. Will global development veer toward a world of impoverished people, cultures and nature? Or will there be a Great Transition toward a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and environmental sustainability? The book’s appraisal of the current global crossroads is disquieting. Conventional development is perilous, while the reform path to a sustainable future is problematic and uncertain.

Yet, this work shows that a fundamental change of direction is still possible. Progressive elements of civil society, government, international organizations, and business can forge a new sustainability paradigm, an alternative vision of globalization centered on the quality of life, human solidarity, environmental resilience, and an informed and engaged citizenry.

Visions of the new sustainability paradigm have been further elaborated in the GTI Paper Series.

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Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability (1998) analyzes the prospects for sustainability within the confines of Conventional Worlds scenarios. It introduces social and environmental targets and strategies for reaching them. It shows both the great potential for progress and the daunting challenges within a growth-driven development paradigm.

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Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (1997) develops a framework for envisioning global futures and depicts contrasting world development scenarios, all compatible with current patterns and trends, but with sharply different implications for civilization in the twenty-first century.

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The scenarios have been analyzed in considerable detail. Click Quantification to view results, which are documented in Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes (PDF).

 

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